Evidence Of President Obama’s Base Problems

Posted on May 11, 2012 by DocBrown

A shaky economy.  High unemployment.  Skyrocketing deficits.  Sinking poll numbers.  And now a significant problem with his base.

Things certainly aren’t looking up for President Obama’s reelection efforts.

Following an abysmal showing in North Carolina where 20% of Democrat voters cast their ballots in favor of “no preference” and an utterly disastrous performance in West Virginia, losing over 40% of the vote to a convicted felon, Obama’s had a bit of trouble showing his base—the liberals that dominate the Democrat party—that he’s worth keeping around another four years.

And for further proof, you only need to look at his new position on same-sex marriage:

“At a certain point, I’ve just concluded, that for me, personally, it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same-sex couples should be able to get married,” Obama told ABC News.

Of course, this is a switch from his long-held belief that marriage is between one man and one woman.  So why the about-face?

He’s losing his base, that’s why.

Look at the polling in North Carolina—the most recent state to define marriage as between a man and a woman: 

  • Men and women supported it. 
  • Independents supported it. 
  • Every racial group supported it. 
  • Everyone over the age of 30 supported it.

So who didn’t support it?  Liberal Democrats.  Those self-identifying as Liberals opposed it 77% to 22%.  Democrats overall were in opposition by a much smaller margin at 53% to 40%.  Clearly, the liberal wing of the party was carrying the statistical weight.

That means that, while almost every demographic group supports the idea that marriage is between a man and a woman, President Obama is betting his political chips on the most liberal American voters—voters that should already be in his corner.  But apparently, Obama isn’t too sure about the Democrat base coming out to support him this election. 

Thus the switch.

And if the President is worried about losing his base less than 180 days from the election, well, it’s going to be a long several months for the Obama campaign.

Cross-posted at Third Base Politics.

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Ted Strickland Redux: Governor Kasich’s Guarantee For Reelection

Posted on May 10, 2012 by DocBrown

You’ve heard us tell you before that Governor Strickland and his band of misfit toys are definitely considering another run for governor in 2014.  Of course, we couldn’t be more ecstatic to see the man who lost Ohio 400,000 jobs match up against the man currently turning this state around.

He’s added jobs, made Ohio more attractive to business, surrounded himself with the best talent and all while tackling Ohio’s largest budget deficit in history.

Of course, if you’re to believe Strickland, that $8 billion deficit he handed off to Kasich wasn’t really all that much:

“He did not have an $8-billion deficit, that is simply factually incorrect,” Strickland said.

Alright, Mr. Strickland, have it your way.  In May of 2011, the Plain Dealer crunched the numbers, show that the deficit was closer to $6 billion:

Add up all the extra revenue and you get $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion. So the real deficit is actually turning out to be about $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion.

Ok, you got me, Strickland.  You didn’t leave the state dead in a ditch… you left her bruised, beaten and bleeding from the ears.

The fact of the matter is, under Governor Strickland’s watch, Ohio lost more jobs and saw the unemployment rate rise to the highest levels in over a quarter-century.  And when he was faced with his own budget deficits in 2009, he raised taxes on hardworking Ohio families.

Of course, we could pick apart Strickland’s absurd assertion that Kasich cut education funding, when he actually increased the state’s share.  Strickland, however, used one-time stimulus money to backfill his obligations to Ohio’s schools.

So after Ohio’s credit outlook was upgraded and jobs started to return to the Buckeye State—all under Governor Kasich—does Strickland really want to bring his record of epic failure back for another go around?

If the only ammo he’s packing is to argue over whether he left an $8 billion or $6 billion budget deficit, Governor Kasich’s reelection is all but guaranteed.

Cross-posted at Third Base Politics.

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New Quinnipiac Poll Foreshadows Trouble For Obama In Ohio, Other Swing States

Posted on May 3, 2012 by DocBrown

Quinnipiac is out again with its Swing State Poll.  And while today, the poll has Obama leading in the key states of Ohio, and Pennsylvania (Romney has the advantage in Florida), the numbers do not bode well for a President whose policies have the nation staring down the barrel of a massive debt crisis.

Currently, if the election were held today, Quinnipiac has the numbers as follows:

  • Florida: 44% Romney, 43% Obama
  • Pennsylvania: 39% Romney, 47% Obama
  • Ohio: 42% Romney, 44% Obama

So, that puts Obama in the lead in two of these critical swing states for an electoral advantage of 38 to 29, as of today.  But oh, what a difference just a few short months can make.

In political polling, it’s generally accepted that if a sitting office holder isn’t over 50% early on, they’re going to have some struggles.  Reason being, they don’t have half of the electorate already backing them, and it’s going to be tough for an incumbent to move even a few percentage points.

When you’re an incumbent, the voters already know your record—and in Obama’s case, it’s not something to brag about.  Heck, he can’t even get America’s most liberal senator to back him.

But let’s not focus on the political grandiosity and take a look at the numbers.  From the same time period just two years ago, here’s what the political landscape looked like:

  • In Florida, Quinnipiac had then-Governor Charlie Crist beating Republican up-and-comer Marco Rubio by 37% – 33% in a three-way race for U.S. Senate.
  • In Pennsylvania, they had then-Senator Arlen Specter with a 47% – 39% lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak.
  • And in Ohio, then-Governor Ted Strickland led Republican John Kasich by a margin of 44% – 38%, and Lee Fisher had a 40% – 37% lead over Rob Portman for U.S. Senate.

Of course, we all know what happened in those races.  Rubio beat Crist in that three-way race by an astounding 49% – 30%, Specter was upset by Sestak 54% – 46%.  And we all know about the Ohio results.

Kasich bested Strickland 49% – 47% and Portman stomped Fisher with a 57% – 39% drubbing.  All of this, even after each of the eventual victors was down as late as May 2010.

If history has anything to say about it, Obama’s reelection chances are dwindling more and more each day.  But even if you’re not a fan of history repeating itself, the numbers out of the Quinnipiac poll today show just how much Obama struggles against Romney, and on multiple fronts.

Who do you think would do a better job on the economy?  In Florida, that’s 49% – 40% in favor of Romney.  It’s a 47% – 43% Romney advantage in Ohio.  Obama’s only lead comes in Pennsylvania with a slim 44% – 43% lead.

How about whether Obama’s signature piece of legislation—the healthcare reform law—should be repealed?  Obama loses that argument by margins ranging from 4% to 15% in every state.

The situation gets even worse when you drill down into the numbers.  As could be expected, Obama leads self-described Democrats in all three states, but he’s losing the all-important Independent vote by a margin of 41% – 38% in Florida, and 43% – 38% in the Buckeye State.

His only lead comes in Pennsylvania (45% – 36%), where many in the Keystone State are still getting to know Romney after their native son, Rick Santorum, bowed out of the race.  So those numbers are bound to improve over the coming months.

And to add insult to injury, Republicans are way more excited that Democrats to vote in the 2012 elections as compared to past presidential elections, with GOP advantages in that category ranging from 10% to 22%.

To put it plainly, Obama cannot win reelection by alienating those in the middle, and he’s already behind the GOP frontrunner, who, after a drawn out primary, hasn’t even ramped up his general election campaign.

Obama might be ahead today, but the numbers and enthusiasm gap are certainly not on his side for that lead to still be there come November.

Add history in to the mix, and America’s self-proclaimed fourth best president ever could be headed toward that “one-term proposition.”

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Obama Needs To Give Credit To Those Who Deserve It

Posted on May 1, 2012 by DocBrown

On the anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death, President Obama’s recent campaign ad “spikes the football” in taking credit for dispatching the world’s most wanted terrorist. On top of that, Obama takes a shot at Mitt Romney, saying he would not have had the courage to do the same.

Of course, that’s a bit of a stretch. Saying Romney wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on the bin Laden mission is a lot like saying Michael Moore wouldn’t pull the trigger on visiting the buffet this week.

But Obama taking credit for an operation that spanned multiple presidential administrations, and was ultimately executed by an elite team of military personnel is the really disturbing part. Especially given his liberal, pacifist leanings.

Make no mistake about it, you have to be a special breed of person to join the military—a breed superior to most. And to be an elite member of the special forces takes an even more exceptional person.

That’s one type of person Obama certainly is not. Heck, Obama wouldn’t have done anything outside of reading Osama his Miranda rights.

At the end of the day, Obama can tout his “victory” all he wants, but it was those men on the ground that deserve every ounce of credit. Without their commitment and dedication to this great country, America would not have had this great victory in the war on terror.

And until Obama acknowledges as much, he’s bound to keep offending even his own party.

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President Obama’s Illegal Campaign Helpers

Posted on April 30, 2012 by DocBrown

Unless you’ve been living under a rock the last couple of days, by now you’ve heard that yesterday marked the three year anniversary of the last time Senate Democrats passed a budget.

But you’ll have to forgive us for not breaking out the bubbly.

While Americans are mired in stagnating, if not declining, wages, the average member of Congress has seen his or her wealth grow to a staggering $913,000.

And we pay these people?!

So while Sherrod Brown sits on his million-dollar net worth, in his 3300 sq. ft. home, all while neglecting his constitutional duty to pass a budget, the rest of us are struggling to make sure our mortgage payments fit into our budget.

Of course, it’s another story entirely how a man who’s been in public service—government paid jobs—since the 1970′s can be a millionaire at all.

By now, it’s been generally accepted that the main reason Senate Democrats have refused to pass a budget is to provide political cover for President Obama’s reelection efforts. By ensuring that Democrats don’t cast a vote for the cuts necessary to balance the budget, or (even worse by conservative standards) continued deficit spending, Obama won’t have to answer the tough questions going into November.

It’s a simple campaign strategy.  Which begs the question above, once again: why are we paying these people?

You see, it’s illegal to use government tax dollars to fund political campaigns, and if elected Senate Democrats refuse to pass a budget as a campaign ploy to help reelect President Obama, that makes them nothing more than campaign consultants.

That’s campaign helpers paid for on the taxpayer dime.  Not exactly the model for government transparency, Mr. President.

At this point, we’d normally charge the President with taking the lead and demanding action from his fellow party members. But after his own budget proposal failed to garner a single vote—even from his Democrat colleagues—it appears he’s about as useless to his own party as he is to the rest of America.

And that’s saying something.

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